Canterbury / Marlborough pasture growth
How this season's growth is running against the district's own 30-year normal — modelled from measured weather, not from anyone's paddocks.
Weather measured to 24 September 2026. Page updated 29 September 2026. Updated every night from Copernicus ERA5-Land (CC-BY).
This season at a glance
Dairy platform
+7%
more growth than normal
over the 11 months to August 2026, plus September so far
Weather measured at Lincoln
Sheep & beef
+8%
more growth than normal
over the 11 months to August 2026, plus September so far
Weather measured at Winchmore
Dairy platform
About 17.6 t DM/ha in an average year.
DairyNZ (2020) Average pasture growth data — median of 9 monitoring sites (Canterbury)
Weather ran ahead of normal in 8 of the last 12 months and behind in 3; the other 1 sat close to normal. Biggest swings: February +33%, May −25%, January +24%.
The year in Canterbury / Marlborough
When grass grows here across the season, and what the weather has allowed over the last twelve months against it — oldest month first. The shaded cone carries today’s soil moisture forward through past years’ rainfall.
Month by month against normal
Each month against its own 30-year average for this place — so a good June is measured against Junes, not against the rest of the year.
Show the monthly figuresHide the monthly figures
| Month | Average year | This year | Against normal |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2025 | 68.0 | 77.0 | +13% |
| November 2025 | 70.0 | 70.0 | close to normal |
| December 2025 | 76.0 | 70.3 | −8% |
| January 2026 | 72.0 | 89.1 | +24% |
| February 2026 | 69.0 | 91.5 | +33% |
| March 2026 | 67.0 | 72.5 | +8% |
| April 2026 | 48.0 | 44.5 | −7% |
| May 2026 | 29.0 | 21.8 | −25% |
| June 2026 | 12.0 | 12.3 | +2% |
| July 2026 | 11.0 | 11.8 | +7% |
| August 2026 | 18.0 | 18.7 | +4% |
| September 2026 · first 24 days | 41.0 | 44.0 | +7% |
kg DM/ha/day. “Average year” is the cited regional curve for LUDF (irrigated), Canterbury; “this year” is that curve adjusted for the measured weather. A month reads “not scored” when there is no usable 30-year baseline for it — NOT when it simply sat close to normal, which is a finding and is shown as one.
The months ahead
Not a weather forecast. The range is how much this month has varied at Lincoln across 30 past years; a lean, where there is one, is today's soil-moisture deficit carried forward. We do not call a direction for these months: back-tested over 20 years of past seasons, that call came out no better than a coin toss, so we leave it to the range.
- October: 8% less to 12% more than usual, no clear lean
- November: 14% less to 11% more than usual, no clear lean
- December: 8% less to 14% more than usual, no clear lean
Sheep & beef
About 6.0 t DM/ha in an average year.
B+LNZ Guide to Feed Planning for Sheep Farmers, App. 6 (1981) — Winchmore, Canterbury Plains (dryland, unirrigated — an irrigated farm should edit this up)
Weather ran ahead of normal in 10 of the last 12 months and behind in 1; the other 1 sat close to normal. Biggest swings: February +25%, January +20%, June +14%.
The year in Canterbury / Marlborough
When grass grows here across the season, and what the weather has allowed over the last twelve months against it — oldest month first. The shaded cone carries today’s soil moisture forward through past years’ rainfall.
Month by month against normal
Each month against its own 30-year average for this place — so a good June is measured against Junes, not against the rest of the year.
Show the monthly figuresHide the monthly figures
| Month | Average year | This year | Against normal |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2025 | 37.0 | 40.2 | +9% |
| November 2025 | 27.0 | 28.6 | +6% |
| December 2025 | 19.0 | 19.8 | +4% |
| January 2026 | 13.0 | 15.6 | +20% |
| February 2026 | 14.0 | 17.5 | +25% |
| March 2026 | 16.0 | 17.4 | +9% |
| April 2026 | 14.0 | 14.0 | close to normal |
| May 2026 | 8.0 | 7.5 | −6% |
| June 2026 | 5.0 | 5.7 | +14% |
| July 2026 | 5.0 | 5.5 | +10% |
| August 2026 | 9.0 | 9.7 | +7% |
| September 2026 · first 24 days | 30.0 | 32.0 | +7% |
kg DM/ha/day. “Average year” is the cited regional curve for Winchmore, Canterbury Plains; “this year” is that curve adjusted for the measured weather. A month reads “not scored” when there is no usable 30-year baseline for it — NOT when it simply sat close to normal, which is a finding and is shown as one.
The months ahead
Not a weather forecast. The range is how much this month has varied at Winchmore across 30 past years; a lean, where there is one, is today's soil-moisture deficit carried forward. We do not call a direction for these months: back-tested over 20 years of past seasons, that call came out no better than a coin toss, so we leave it to the range.
- October: 7% less to 6% more than usual, no clear lean
- November: 9% less to 13% more than usual, no clear lean
- December: 8% less to 14% more than usual, no clear lean
Other regions
How this is worked out
A cited growth curve
Each region and system starts from a published pasture growth curve — DairyNZ's average growth data for dairy platforms, and Beef + Lamb NZ's feed-planning figures for drystock country. Those are the “average year” lines. The exact curve behind each figure, and where it came from, is named under that system below.
Thirty years of real weather
We hold daily rainfall, air temperature and soil moisture back to the mid-1990s for each monitoring site, from Copernicus ERA5-Land. That gives every month its own 30-year normal, so a wet June is judged against other Junes rather than against the rest of the year.
Temperature and soil moisture
Two things move the figure: how warm the month was, and how much moisture was in the soil. A month that is normal on both leaves the curve where it is. Warmth follows a published New Zealand growth curve — grass slows in the cold rather than stopping, and grows fastest around 20°C (Romera et al. 2009, the model behind DairyNZ’s Whole Farm Model). Soil moisture comes from the same Copernicus data as the rainfall and temperature. There is a limit on how far weather can push the figure: at most double the curve, and never below 40% of it. Enough for a real dry spell to show; not enough for one odd month to become a headline.
Weighted by the season, not averaged
A 10% shortfall in October is worth several times a 10% shortfall in July, so the months are weighted by the curve's own shape. Averaging the monthly figures instead would flatter a bad spring and understate a good one.
What the months ahead are
The forward figures are not a weather forecast. They carry today's soil-moisture deficit forward through each of the past ~30 years' actual rainfall and show the spread that results. Through winter the soil is already full, so there is usually a range and no direction — and we say so rather than inventing a lean.
What this is not
It is modelled from weather, not measured on anyone's farm, and it describes a monitoring site rather than your paddocks. Aspect, soil, fertility, irrigation and grazing management all move real growth well beyond what weather explains — on the same paddocks, irrigated pasture still swings about 13% a year on things that have nothing to do with the weather.
Get this for your own place
Canterbury / Marlborough is a monitoring site— it can sit a long way from your gate. Pin your farm's locality and Feedwise reads the weather grid over your country, sets the growth curve to your own figures, and feeds both into a season feed plan.