How is grass growing right now?
Pasture growth across New Zealand this season, against each district's own 30-year normal. Dairy platforms and drystock country read separately — they sit on different land and behave differently, and nobody else publishes them apart.
Weather measured to 28 July 2026. Page updated 2 August 2026. Updated every night from Copernicus ERA5-Land (CC-BY).
Pasture growth by region
Northland / Upper North Island
- Dairy platform
- +8%
- Sheep & beef
- +11%
Waikato / Bay of Plenty
- Dairy platform
- +8%
- Sheep & beef
- +7%
Lower North Island (Taranaki–Wairarapa)
- Dairy platform
- +6%
- Sheep & beef
- +3%
Canterbury / Marlborough
- Dairy platform
- +7%
- Sheep & beef
- +7%
Southland / Otago
- Dairy platform
- +5%
- Sheep & beef
- +4%
West Coast
- Dairy platform
- Normal
- Sheep & beef
- +3%
Each figure is how far this season's modelled growth ran from that district's 30-year normal — a statement about the weather, not about any particular farm's production. Copernicus ERA5-Land (CC-BY).
How this is worked out
A cited growth curve
Each region and system starts from a published pasture growth curve — DairyNZ's average growth data for dairy platforms, and Beef + Lamb NZ's feed-planning figures for drystock country. Those are the “average year” lines. The exact curve behind each figure, and where it came from, is named under that system below.
Thirty years of real weather
We hold daily rainfall, air temperature and soil moisture back to the mid-1990s for each monitoring site, from Copernicus ERA5-Land. That gives every month its own 30-year normal, so a wet June is judged against other Junes rather than against the rest of the year.
Temperature and soil moisture
Two things move the figure: how warm the month was, and how much moisture was in the soil. A month that is normal on both leaves the curve where it is. Warmth follows a published New Zealand growth curve — grass slows in the cold rather than stopping, and grows fastest around 20°C (Romera et al. 2009, the model behind DairyNZ’s Whole Farm Model). Soil moisture comes from the same Copernicus data as the rainfall and temperature. There is a limit on how far weather can push the figure: at most double the curve, and never below 40% of it. Enough for a real dry spell to show; not enough for one odd month to become a headline.
Weighted by the season, not averaged
A 10% shortfall in October is worth several times a 10% shortfall in July, so the months are weighted by the curve's own shape. Averaging the monthly figures instead would flatter a bad spring and understate a good one.
What the months ahead are
The forward figures are not a weather forecast. They carry today's soil-moisture deficit forward through each of the past ~30 years' actual rainfall and show the spread that results. Through winter the soil is already full, so there is usually a range and no direction — and we say so rather than inventing a lean.
What this is not
It is modelled from weather, not measured on anyone's farm, and it describes a monitoring site rather than your paddocks. Aspect, soil, fertility, irrigation and grazing management all move real growth well beyond what weather explains — on the same paddocks, irrigated pasture still swings about 13% a year on things that have nothing to do with the weather.
Get this for your own place
These are monitoring sites— it can sit a long way from your gate. Pin your farm's locality and Feedwise reads the weather grid over your country, sets the growth curve to your own figures, and feeds both into a season feed plan.